Summer Transfer Report

Global transfer spending reached €10.8bn this summer window, up 5.5% on last year’s record of €10.2bn. A second successive year above €10bn, and a second successive record spend, demonstrate that securing top talent remains a key strategic priority for clubs. While it also suggests the size of the market has found a new normal, the data beneath the headline tells a story of two markets – continued growth at the top driven by the Premier League but a very different reality elsewhere.

Over the past five years, global player spending in the summer market has increased over 65%. In summer 2022, €6.5bn of player transfers was a new record as the market rebounded from a Covid slump. Today that figure pales into insignificance as the arms race for talent has continued to intensify. Across the past two summer windows we have seen total transfers top €10bn and the average of the last two years is now €2.7bn higher (+34%) than the three prior years – indicating a new normal for the size of the global transfer market.

While from a topline it appears the entire market has grown, the data beneath the total actually points to increasing separation in the market. This is driven by three notable and interconnected factors: significant price inflation in top-end transfers; the growing dominance of the Premier League; and genuine change in the business models of clubs competing elsewhere.

The trend of top clubs spending more on talent is not new, but the pace of inflation is nonetheless notable. The number of transactions at or above €25m has increased 129% over the past five years and those transactions now represent 47% of total global spend (up from 33% five years ago). In the last 12 months alone, the average value of a top-50 transfer rose €10.1m (+18%) from €56.1m to €66.2m. The corresponding squeeze is on mid-market transactions, which have fallen from 30% to 21% of global transfer spend, and from €3.1bn to €2.3bn in absolute terms.

Premier League spending surged to €4.1bn in this window, demonstrating again its growing dominance over competing leagues. This summer’s Premier League spend was a record for the largest outlay by any league in any single window, and accounted for 38% of total global spend – also a record. A stark fact is that the Premier League now accounts for more than the combined total of the next six highest spending leagues (LaLiga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, EFL Championship and Primeira Liga). The Premier League is becoming the buyer around which everyone else structures their planning, shifting from market participant to market maker.

Spending on this scale clearly points to fierce competition within the Premier League. We see this most pronounced by isolating high-value transfers, where Premier League clubs accounted for a remarkable 62% of all €25m+ transfers, nine of the ten highest-value transfers and 32 of the top-50. We also witnessed a material increase in intra-Premier League trading, where experience in the league (often cited as physical, pressurised, played in a colder climate) is being increasingly sought out. This summer we saw €1.6bn of intra-league trading which represents 40% of total Premier League spend compared with 27% only five years ago. This increased spending is not confined to the established elite either: the three promoted clubs spent an average of €180m each and no club invested less than €140m, evidence that spending in the division is seen simply as the price of survival.

Outside the Premier League, the picture is very different. Unable to compete on the same terms, clubs appear to be adjusting their business models to a new reality. Among the rest of the Top-5 leagues spending was largely flat (-2%) with only La Liga reporting an increase, up to €755m (+10%) from €684m last year. On the sell-side, Spain (-22%), Italy (-33%) and Germany (-21%) all sold significantly less than last year, consistent with a strategy of retaining talent. France was the exception, there clubs sold for €1.3bn (+32%) of which €0.75bn (59%) went to English sides, as the French cashed in a pipeline of talent to help balance a very difficult domestic revenue backdrop. Beyond the Top-5, Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands continued to grow as top talent developers and exporters. These leagues have geared their business models towards talent production and value capture from the Premier League.

What this window ultimately reveals is that while the global transfer market appears to have settled at a new scale, it is not growing evenly and is increasingly being shaped from the top down. For the Premier League, the data shows spending that has decoupled from the rest of the market, with even promoted clubs transacting at levels the rest of Europe cannot sustain. For clubs outside it, the data points to a strategic response of retaining and developing talent rather than trading when it is too expensive to replace players, or, as in France, Portugal, Belgium and the Netherlands, building a model specifically around selling talent. These strategies demand a new level of sophistication in squad planning and financial management, particularly where transfer fees are paid and received in instalments over several years. The clubs that navigate the next phase of this market will therefore be those that incorporate and carefully manage player trading as part of a long-term business plan. Those that do not will find themselves further behind the competition with each passing window.

If the Premier League’s revenue and spending advantage continues to compound, we will no doubt continue to see a significant shift in the competitive balance between clubs across Europe. What will ensue, as a result of this widening gap, is renewed pressure for tighter regulation of player spending and financial sustainability and ultimately potential competition reform across European competitions.

For the second successive year, global summer transfer spending surpassed €10bn and set a new record. Across the past two summer transfer windows, global spend has averaged €10.5bn, against an average of €7.8bn for the three preceding summer transfer windows.

Transactions at or above €25m accounted for 47% of all transfer value this summer, against 33% five years ago. The tier grew from 48 deals worth €2.2bn to 110 deals worth €5.1bn, representing volume and value gains of 129% and 133%, respectively.

Growth in transactions at the top of the market significantly cut mid-market trades. The €10-25m band fell from €3.1bn to €2.3bn, a decline of 27% in value and 26% in volume in a single year. Serie A’s mid-market spending fell 53%, from €571.0m to €271.0m; LaLiga’s fell 53%, from €232.0m to €109.0m; the Bundesliga’s fell 41% and the Premier League’s 12%.

Transactions between €10-25m is where selling clubs have historically realised value on players developed in their youth systems and the tier typically targeted by buying clubs outside of the elite typically to strengthen their squads. This year’s significant squeeze on the mid-market may have a substantial and lasting impact on these teams that are strategically reliant on it across both sides of the player trading model.

Premier League clubs spent €4.1bn this summer, an increase of 15% over last year. That represented 38% of total global transfer spending which is the highest share any league has recorded and above the Premier League’s own average of 34% over the past five years. Premier League clubs spent more than the combined spend of Serie A, the Bundesliga, LaLiga, Ligue 1, the EFL Championship and Primeira Liga put together.

Of the €5.1bn spent on transfers at or above €25m, Premier League clubs paid €3.2bn, for 62 of its 110 transactions. Nine of the ten largest transfers of the summer had an English buyer, and thirty-two of the fifty largest. The Premier League’s share of this spend is largely unchanged, as it was 63% five years ago, representing 28 of the 48 transactions.

All twenty Premier League clubs spent more than €50m this summer, and 16 spent more than €100m, against 11 five years ago. England’s three largest spenders accounted for 32% of their league’s total spend and its top ten for 73%. Across the other leagues tracked in this report, the averages are 58% and 91% respectively. Three of the division’s seven heaviest net spenders were promoted this season committed €544.9m of total net spend between them - Ipswich Town (-€201.3m), Hull City (-€155.4m) and Coventry City (-€143.4m).

Outside of England’s top flight, the other Big 5 leagues have spent within a narrow band for the past three years. Serie A, the Bundesliga, LaLiga and Ligue 1 spent €3.3bn between them this summer, 2% below last year and a 33% growth since 2022/23. By contrast, Premier League’s spending rose 78% over the same period.

Response to the shifting dynamics driven by the Premier League have not been uniform across the other Big 5 leagues.

LaLiga’s 10% increase is driven by its three largest clubs, as Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético accounting for 70% of the division’s spend.

Beyond the Big 5, Saudi Arabia spent €385.9m, an 19% decline and its third consecutive contraction from a €945.6m peak in 2023/24. The Championship is now the highest spending league outside the Big 5. The Turkish Süper Lig has moved from ninth to seventh among global leagues by spend and is the only league that was already deploying more than €100m in 2022/23 to have grown in triple digits since. Spend concentration highlights that the growth is narrow across the league, as four clubs account for over 85% of the spend across the past five summer windows, with the top two representing 58% and are the only clubs from the market that feature within the top 50 UEFA club coefficient ranking. Turkey now sits ninth in UEFA’s association coefficient, the league’s Champion will qualify directly for the Champions League stage, plus a further four eligible to compete in UEFA competitions by joining at different stages of the qualifying rounds of the three tournaments, hosted the 2026 Europa League final, stages the 2027 Conference League final, and co-hosts EURO 2032 with Italy.

Ligue 1 players sales moved up 32% to €1.3bn this summer, and is now the second-largest selling league in world football. Liga Portugal sold €539m (+51%), the EFL Championship €583m (+36%) and the Belgian Pro League €388 (+17%), all record figures. The Eredivisie remained broadly flat at €345m (-5%), as it has done over the past five years, with the exception of the 2024/25 window, where the league sold 43% less value than its average across the other four windows.

In South America there was substantial contraction as Brazil’s Série A sold €121m against €352m a year ago, a 66% fall and the largest of any market in the top 25, with Argentina down 23% to €113m. For clubs who depend on player trading, the implication is potentially directional rather than cyclical. Based on the England’s increasing gravitational pull across the market, proximity to the Premier League is now the largest determinant of player trading performance. Brazilian and Argentine clubs, who have not historically traded directly with English clubs at significant levels, appear to have been significantly impacted by the mid-market contraction.

Ligue 1 shipped €751.8m player sales to the Premier League, representing 57% of its total sales, up from 40% a year ago. The remaining Big 5 leagues, which have historically sold to the Premier League sold significantly less this summer. Italian clubs reported 44% less sales to the Premier League and 33% overall, with German sides down 58% and 21%, and Spanish clubs down 10% and 22%, respectively.

Almost 40% of the Premier League’s €4.1bn was spent on players already inside the division, up from 34% a year ago. At the top of the market the effect is sharper as intra-league deals accounted for 18 of the 50 largest transactions this window, against 14 last summer, and rose from 33% to 43% of the top 50 value. The result means that a growing share of English money is not leaving England.

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This presentation has been prepared for general information purposes only. It does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice, nor should it be relied upon as such. The information contained herein is based on sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of such information, and it should not be regarded as a substitute for independent analysis and verification. Any opinions or estimates expressed in this presentation are subject to change without notice and do not necessarily reflect the current views of Tifosy Capital & Advisory. Past performance, including that of football clubs or related transactions, is not indicative of future results. Neither Tifosy Capital & Advisory nor its affiliates, officers, employees, or agents accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this presentation or its contents.