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Deep Dive
8 min read

Relegation in focus: the European Big 5

As relegation season fast approaches, a deep dive into probabilities, performance and personnel

  • Clubs finishing in the bottom half of the Premier League and La Liga tables have a 64% chance of relegation in the next five years
  • Average squad values fall from €55.7m to €36.7m (34%) following relegation
  • Clubs in Italy have an average of 2.6 managers before relegation, and 90% sack the manager in charge at season end

As things stand, we are only four losses away from the first guaranteed relegation in Europe’s Big 5. France’s Dijon FCO and more surprisingly Germany’s Schalke 04 are both 13 points from safety with just 24 points left to play for.

In reality, it will very likely take fewer than four losses, as any points gained by teams immediately above will widen the gap. The same applies to the Premier League’s Sheffield United, needing a minimum of 14 points from the remaining 27 available; five further losses would seal their fate, but it will almost certainly take fewer.
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